Seeley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS65 KPSR 112151
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
247 PM MST Fri Apr 11 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Well-above normal temperatures with highs in the triple digits will
persist through the start weekend as ridging aloft continues to stay
parked over the region. Cooler temperatures are expected late this
weekend through next week, but still remain above normal. Winds pick
up by this weekend initiating an increase in fire weather concerns,
primarily in the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric analysis continues to show a distinct strong ridging
pattern over the Western CONUS. 500mb heights over the Desert SW are
to remain elevated today and Saturday with heights between 584-588dm
resulting in the region to be on course to again see temperatures
ranging from 99-104. That being said, records are expected to again
tie or be broken today and tomorrow (80-90% for Phoenix). These
triple digit temps are earlier than normal, with the first 100
degree day on average arriving May 2nd, although we did not set the
record earliest as that was set 26 March 1988.

Global models are in good agreement that a quick moving trough will
be passing through the Pacific NW and northern Rockies over the
weekend. Even though this system is well north of us it will help
the Desert SW region in a couple of ways. It will help push the
ridge parked over us to the east slightly and decrease the 500mb
heights. This will help facilitate cooler air to begin working its
way south through the Great Basin. Sunday is when our region will
feel the greatest decrease in temperatures, on average between 4-6
degrees lower than Saturday. Even with that drop, temperatures will
remain 8-10 degrees above normal, but at the very least moving away
from setting any new record highs starting Sunday. This weekend will
also start to see an increase in the winds, mainly in the higher
terrain areas east of Phoenix. Gusts over these areas will reach 25-
30 mph and in combination with the very dry conditions that have
persisted, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
expected.

Going into early next week, there will be a weakening shortwave
trough that will be moving through the region but will likely be
inconsequential with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid
90s across the lower deserts. By later next week uncertainty creeps
into the models with the positioning of a cutoff low off the
southern coast of CA. This uncertainty in the overall timing and
strength is being reflected in the temperature outlook as the NBM
25th-75th interquartile range is a good 8-12 degrees. This low can
also reintroduce elevated winds back into the region, and with
continued dry conditions, fire Weather will likely be a concern,
requiring monitoring.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under some passing high clouds can be
expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will
continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds
generally under 10 kts. There will likely be periods of very light
and variable winds to even calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abnormally hot conditions with temperatures across many of the
lower desert locations reaching into the triple digits can be
expected over the next few days. A cooling trend is expected by
the end of the weekend through next week, however, temperatures
will still remain above normal. MinRHs through the next several
days for most of the area will remain in the single digits with
poor overnight recoveries (RH`s 15-25%). Winds through Friday
will remain light and follow the typical diurnal trends, with some
occasional afternoon upslope breeziness. By the weekend, as a
weather system passes to the north, winds are expected to increase
across the region with widespread afternoon/early evening peak
gusts between 20-30 mph, with locally higher gusts in excess of 30
mph across the eastern districts. The combination of the gusty
winds and very dry conditions will result in elevated to locally
critical fire conditions. A couple of additional weather systems
will likely affect the region next week resulting in enhanced
breeziness and thus more elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr 11   99 in 2023    101 in 1936   100 in 2018
Apr 12   99 in 1936    102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ133.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ133.

CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ryan
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Ryan
CLIMATE...Kuhlman